[intro]The day before Ahmed Kathrada passed, on 27 March, now ex-Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan was recalled from an investor roadshow. In shock, we all asked ‘why?’ Our president knew the answer but he wasn’t in a talking mood. After Gordhan’s axing the rand took a dive and so did our nerves. Overnight the nuclear expansion programme and the South Africa-Russia procurement deal that’s been looming since 2013 became an imminent reality.[/intro]
It took the debutant Minister of Finance Malusi Gigaba only hours to declare that the energy system has stabilised in South Africa and that it was time to unite to stimulate “investment, create new jobs, increase productivity and raise incomes”. Perhaps he got his notes from Eskom CEO Matshela Koko, who claimed just a few months ago, “The successful execution of the new nuclear build programme will not only fuel GDP growth, but could alleviate levels of unemployment in SA.”
In keeping with the vacuous tone of pro-nuclear discourse to date, these statements lack supporting evidence and analysis. How will it boost unemployment? How many jobs will it deliver? How does this compare with jobs in renewables and what are the relative returns on investment and payback periods?
During a recent press conference in Pretoria, Minister Gigaba said that no formal decision has yet been taken, but nuclear-based energy generation would be implemented to ‘diversify our energy mix’ based on ‘what the country can afford’ and that the process would be managed at a pace and scale our fiscus can handle.
Okay Minister, but take into consideration that our fiscus is already struggling to handle housing, social grants, higher education and public health. It has not yet handled water management infrastructure upgrading (just to make it real for the middle class), and if it can handle nuclear, we certainly have not been told how, and over what time period.
Gigaba has the rubber stamp of approval out that Gordhan kept locked away. And this is a problem, because the numbers we saw from the government-sponsored CSIR are very worrying and indicate that we should be investing in renewables instead.
What is Gigaba’s plan?
Conservative estimates put the cost of nuclear construction at $50 billion. Given the scale of the 9,600MW nuclear programme, it would be wise to draw on our experience with other large-scale energy infrastructure investments to learn some valuable lessons and check our assumptions. The almost 4,800MW coal-fired Medupi has fallen behind schedule, and while estimated at R69.1 billion in 2007, stood at R195 billion in June of 2016. So, what happens when the nuclear deal, large as it is, goes even a little off course, which nuclear builds typically do? How will we pay for that? What is Gigaba’s plan?
If the nuclear deal goes ahead, the much-beleaguered Eskom will conduct the procurement process and secure the necessary finance. It bears repeating that a loan by Eskom ultimately falls to the public purse to pay. Eskom, already weighed down in debt and scrambling to pull in payments from defaulting municipal clients, cannot afford to fail. National Treasury will not let it, as its success is critical to the survival of our economy. A bad bet on nuclear is a bad bet on our behalf, and when the need for fiscal triage arises, we will pay for it through increasing electricity prices, and tax funds diverted from other urgent priorities. Additionally, the integrity of Eskom’s procurement processes was called into question in the State of Capture Report. We should reasonably require that no massive procurement is undertaken before the extent of financial mismanagement is publically determined and transparently addressed.
The need for nuclear is the most fundamental concern
Any energy investments made must be deemed absolutely necessary before adding to Eskom’s indebtedness and our national debt. The 2010 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) that Gigaba used to justify nuclear was replaced by a 2013 update that called for only around a third of the nuclear capacity of its predecessor. Now, four years later, it is unclear that we need any nuclear at all.
2013, we will recall, was also the year that, against the Department of Energy’s (DoE) official position, a nuclear transaction was first designed and taken into talks with Russian service providers the following year.
While Cabinet pushes for nuclear, local governments pull in a different direction. Municipalities like Nelson Mandela Bay (well before they went DA) and the City of Cape Town have identified renewables as engines of local economic development, inclusive of local manufacturing opportunities, the holy grail of our industrial policy. In fact, many municipalities are pursuing localised renewable energy, which is at odds with a national nuclear expansion strategy. Mayor Patricia de Lille announced earlier this year that she would take the Minister of Energy to court over the right to buy energy directly from REIPPPP power producers without having to go through Eskom.
It will not be the only court case requiring the attention of the recently appointed Minister of Energy, Mmamoloko “Nkhensani” Kubayi. The nuclear deal is already the subject of a Cape High Court case, for allegedly failing to meet the standards of parliamentary review and public participation required for an investment of this scale.
Reframing the debate
The bare facts of the nuclear deal have been obscured by political rhetoric and false opposites. There is now an urgent need to unearth points of common concern between actors that may have very different views on how our energy sector should be structured.
Something must be said that has not often been said. You do not need to believe that REIPPPP (South Africa’s Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme) is the future of the South African energy sector to oppose this deal. REIPPPP is one possible tool. But you can equally argue for an Eskom-led renewable energy strategy, building on their already growing portfolio of wind and solar investments. You could argue for further municipalisation of the energy sector, for localised, small-scale energy generation and the use of residential and commercial microgrids. I happen to be pro a combination of all of the above, aimed primarily at keeping energy affordable and accessible for all.
This nuclear deal must be opposed because it makes no economic sense. It appears to benefit private interests against the public good, it may bankrupt the country over the coming decades and it will likely leave us with an overcapitalised energy sector. Moreover, like Gigaba said, our energy system is stable for now, and there is no reason to rush on nuclear. Let’s talk numbers and put this investment through the appropriate rigorous parliamentary and public review processes of our hard-won democracy.
Being opposed to the nuclear deal does not make you a racist, a classist, anti-ANC, pro-DA, pro-EFF, pro-privatisation or anti-transformation. It is a valid, evidence-based position that can be held by a range of different actors, some terrible and some not so terrible. Consensus building to create coherent policy and strategy in a pluralistic and contested political space is the point and prize of democracy.
Minister, give us, the people of South Africa, policy, finance and energy experts, NERSA, Eskom, Municipalities, the DOE and all interested parties, the chance to flex our democratic muscle and apply our minds, and through contest and collaboration we will develop a national energy plan so thorough as to eclipse the draft 2016 IRP and support the economic development of our beloved country with our best knowledge, experience and collective intelligence.
Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video
to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your site when you could be
giving us something enlightening to read?
First off I would like to say terrific blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask
if you don’t mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear
your thoughts prior to writing. I’ve had a tough time clearing my
thoughts in getting my thoughts out. I do
enjoy writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are usually lost just trying to figure out how to begin. Any
suggestions or tips? Kudos!
This mobile web-site is constructed to function flawlessly on a range of mobile platforms.
my web site … 카지노 추천
When someone writes an piece of writing he/she keeps the plan of a user in his/her brain that how a user can be aware of it.
So that’s why this article is great. Thanks!
I’d like to find out more? I’d love to find out some
additional information.
Wow, incredible blog format! How lengthy have you been blogging for?
you make blogging look easy. The entire glance of your website is fantastic, let alone the
content material!
Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I have truly enjoyed surfing around
your blog posts. After all I will be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again soon!
Superb post however , I was wondering if you could write a
litte more on this subject? I’d be very grateful if you could elaborate a little bit more.
Thanks!
I’m extremely pleased to discover this great site.
I need to to thank you for your time due to this fantastic read!!
I definitely liked every bit of it and I have you
saved to fav to see new information in your web site.
Master’s degree in Counseling or Social Perform essential and licensed clinicians are preferred.
Have a look at my blog ost 미수다
Why users still make use of to read news papers when in this technological world all is accessible
on net?
fantastic points altogether, you just gained a new reader.
What may you recommend in regards to your post that you just made
some days in the past? Any sure?
If you are not certain what you could do, browse the job postings on Upwork
or Outsourcely to get some tips.
Take a look at my web blog
Truly when someone doesn’t know after that its up to other people that
they will help, so here it takes place.
I used to be able to find good info from your blog articles.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on website. Regards
These results indicate that Harvard MBAs aimed foor and continue to wokrth fulfilling experft and prsonal lives.
Heree is myy blog :: webpage
I’m not that much of a online reader to be honest but your sites really nice, keep it up!
I’ll go ahead and bookmark your website to come back in the
future. Cheers
A natural hand in baccarat refers to a distinct winning combo
when dealt to the player or the banker.
Also visit my web-site 바카라사이트 추천
It’s really a great and useful piece of information. I’m glad that you just shared this helpful information with us.
Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
continuously i used to read smaller articles that as well clear their
motive, and that is also happening with this post which
I am reading at this time.
And seize every available moment to make a connection
Wonderful article! This is the kind of info that are meant to be shared across the web.
Shame on Google for now not positioning this post higher! Come on over and talk over with my site .
Thanks =)
I’m amazed, I must say. Seldom do I come across a blog that’s equally educative and interesting, and let
me tell you, you’ve hit the nail on the head.
The issue is an issue that too few folks are speaking intelligently about.
I am very happy I found this during my search for something relating to this.
I visited various sites however the audio feature for audio songs present at this
web page is in fact marvelous.
I constantly spent my half an hour to read this website’s articles or reviews all the time
along with a cup of coffee.
My coder is trying to convince me to move to .net from
PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs.
But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on numerous
websites for about a year and am concerned about switching
to another platform. I have heard great things about blogengine.net.
Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it?
Any help would be greatly appreciated!
I’m really inspired together with your writing talents and also with the structure in your weblog.
Is that this a paid topic or did you customize it yourself?
Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it’s uncommon to look a nice weblog like this one today..
They offer each Eastern and Western modalities to keep you ecstatic and
balanced.
She stretched, rubbed, twisted, and bent our limbs, fixing
our alignment and correcting our posture.
My spouse and I absolutely love your blog and find the majority of your post’s to be just what I’m looking for.
Do you offer guest writers to write content for you personally?
I wouldn’t mind creating a post or elaborating on most of the subjects you write with
regards to here. Again, awesome blog!
I’m really inspired together with your writing skills
as smartly as with the format in your blog. Is this a paid subject matter or did you
customize it your self? Either way keep up the excellent quality writing, it’s uncommon to look a great weblog like this one today..
You are so cool! I don’t believe I have read something like this before.
So nice to find someone with unique thoughts on this subject.
Really.. thank you for starting this up. This web site is one thing that’s needed on the internet, someone with a little originality!
First of all I want to say excellent blog! I had a quick question that I’d
like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your mind
prior to writing. I’ve had difficulty clearing my thoughts in getting
my thoughts out. I truly do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are wasted simply just trying to figure out how
to begin. Any recommendations or tips? Thank you!
These are actually enormous ideas in regarding blogging.
You have touched some fastidious factors here. Any way keep up wrinting.
Hey There. I discovered your weblog using msn. This is an extremely
well written article. I will be sure to bookmark it
and return to learn more of your helpful info. Thank you for
the post. I’ll certainly comeback.
I’m not that much of a online reader to be honest
but your sites really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your site to come
back down the road. All the best
I all the time used to study paragraph in news papers but now as
I am a user of net thus from now I am using net for content, thanks to web.
Hi! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I truly enjoy reading your blog posts.
Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that cover
the same topics? Many thanks!
I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of your website.
It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes
it much more enjoyable for me to come here and visit more often. Did
you hire out a designer to create your theme? Fantastic work!
Everything is very open with a very clear clarification of the issues.
It was really informative. Your site is very helpful.
Thanks for sharing!
Everything is very open with a really clear
clarification of the issues. It was definitely informative.
Your website is useful. Many thanks for sharing!
Every weekend i used to go to see this site, for the reason that i
wish for enjoyment, as this this web site conations genuinely
pleasant funny information too.
Aw, this was a really good post. Taking a few minutes and actual effort to produce a top notch article… but what can I say… I procrastinate a lot and never manage to get anything done.
I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was good.
I do not know who you are but definitely you’re going to a famous blogger if
you aren’t already 😉 Cheers!
Hurrah, that’s what I was looking for, what a data! existing here at this webpage, thanks admin of this web page.
I constantly emailed this web site post page to all my associates, because
if like to read it afterward my friends will too.
I got this web page from my buddy who told me on the topic of this web site and at the moment this time I
am browsing this site and reading very informative content at this
place.
This is very interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger.
I have joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your wonderful post.
Also, I have shared your site in my social networks!
When some one searches for his required thing,
therefore he/she wants to be available that in detail,
so that thing is maintained over here.
Hi there! Someone in my Facebook group shared this website with us
so I came to give it a look. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m book-marking and will be tweeting this to my followers!
Exceptional blog and excellent style and design.
Hi there, just wanted to tell you, I loved this blog post.
It was funny. Keep on posting!
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog
and was curious what all is required to get setup?
I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% positive. Any
suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated.
Kudos
Hey there! This is my first visit to your blog!
We are a team of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community
in the same niche. Your blog provided us valuable information to
work on. You have done a extraordinary job!
If some one needs expert view about running a blog then i suggest him/her to go to see this website, Keep up the good work.
Hi! I’m at work surfing around your blog from my new iphone 4!
Just wanted to say I love reading your blog and look forward to all
your posts! Carry on the superb work!
Thanks for finally writing about > Nuclear needs a rigorous review process | The Journalist < Loved it!
Greetings! I know this is somewhat off topic but
I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form?
I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one?
Thanks a lot!
Hi there! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I really enjoy reading through your articles.
Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums that deal with
the same topics? Thank you!
I gave [url=https://www.cornbreadhemp.com/products/cbd-sleep-gummies ]gummies cbd sleep[/url] a whack at with a view the cardinal habits, and I’m amazed! They tasted smashing and provided a sense of calmness and relaxation. My importance melted away, and I slept better too. These gummies are a game-changer an eye to me, and I extremely put forward them to anyone seeking appropriate stress alleviation and think twice sleep.
I have fun with, lead to I found just what I used to be looking
for. You have ended my 4 day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day.
Bye
Would you like to have fun with me and click for more to connect together in front of the cam until you climax? I really like sperm games and you?
Hello Guys let me blonde free live webcams with girls with you and lets have Fun hehehhehe
live sex with a gorgeous smile, come and see!
Your writing has a way of making even the mundane sound interesting. Kudos!
I enjoyed the examples you provided. They really helped me grasp the concepts.
Keep this going please, great job!
Your adventure starts here—are you ready? Hawkplay
п»їbest mexican online pharmacies
http://cmqpharma.com/# purple pharmacy mexico price list
purple pharmacy mexico price list
I was studying some of your articles on this website and I believe this website is
very informative! Keep posting.Money from blog
http://foruspharma.com/# buying prescription drugs in mexico online
buying from online mexican pharmacy [url=https://foruspharma.com/#]mexican border pharmacies shipping to usa[/url] mexico pharmacy
buying from online mexican pharmacy: medication from mexico pharmacy – mexico pharmacies prescription drugs
https://indiapharmast.com/# india online pharmacy
mexico pharmacy [url=http://foruspharma.com/#]mexico drug stores pharmacies[/url] mexican online pharmacies prescription drugs
india pharmacy: cheapest online pharmacy india – best india pharmacy
best mail order pharmacy canada: northwest pharmacy canada – legit canadian online pharmacy
medicine in mexico pharmacies [url=http://foruspharma.com/#]buying from online mexican pharmacy[/url] mexico drug stores pharmacies
purple pharmacy mexico price list: п»їbest mexican online pharmacies – medication from mexico pharmacy
https://foruspharma.com/# mexican border pharmacies shipping to usa
mexican rx online: mexican drugstore online – best online pharmacies in mexico
canadian pharmacy meds [url=https://canadapharmast.com/#]canadian online pharmacy[/url] pharmacy canadian superstore
cheapest online pharmacy india: buy medicines online in india – indian pharmacies safe
https://indiapharmast.com/# cheapest online pharmacy india
reliable canadian pharmacy: pharmacy in canada – canadian pharmacy store
cipro pharmacy: ciprofloxacin mail online – buy ciprofloxacin
http://doxycyclinedelivery.pro/# 20 doxycycline
paxlovid generic: paxlovid for sale – paxlovid pill
https://ciprodelivery.pro/# buy generic ciprofloxacin
http://amoxildelivery.pro/# amoxicillin azithromycin
amoxicillin 500mg capsules antibiotic [url=http://amoxildelivery.pro/#]buy amoxicillin from canada[/url] medicine amoxicillin 500
https://clomiddelivery.pro/# can i purchase clomid without prescription
buy doxycycline online canada: where can i buy doxycycline online – doxycycline prescription coupon
ciprofloxacin 500mg buy online: buy cipro online canada – buy generic ciprofloxacin
order cheap clomid without dr prescription: where to buy cheap clomid – can i get clomid price
https://amoxildelivery.pro/# amoxicillin 500mg capsules uk
cost of amoxicillin prescription [url=https://amoxildelivery.pro/#]can i buy amoxicillin over the counter[/url] how to get amoxicillin
can you buy doxycycline over the counter: doxycline – doxycycline medication cost
http://paxloviddelivery.pro/# paxlovid covid
medicine amoxicillin 500mg: amoxicillin azithromycin – where can i get amoxicillin 500 mg
https://ciprodelivery.pro/# cipro for sale
https://ciprodelivery.pro/# antibiotics cipro
Paxlovid over the counter: п»їpaxlovid – paxlovid india
buy amoxicillin online with paypal: buy amoxicillin online cheap – amoxicillin without rx
where to buy amoxicillin 500mg: where to buy amoxicillin – amoxicillin 500mg capsule buy online
buy cipro online canada: buy cipro online canada – ciprofloxacin order online
cipro 500mg best prices: ciprofloxacin over the counter – buy cipro cheap